Brierly — The Desk https://brierlyresearch.com/desk Settlement-risk research for event markets — sourced, dated, and Brier-scored. The first call resolves: the June FOMC hold, and what a public scored record actually buys https://brierlyresearch.com/note/first-call-resolves-fomc https://brierlyresearch.com/note/first-call-resolves-fomc Wed, 17 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT On June 17 the Federal Reserve held its target range, and the Desk's first registered call — logged at 0.97 on June 11 — resolved correct. One data point is not a track record. But the mechanism that produced it is the whole argument: forecasts stamped before the event, resolved against the venue, and Brier-scored in public, misses included. Reading the June 2026 CFTC NPRM through the five failure modes https://brierlyresearch.com/note/nprm-five-failure-modes https://brierlyresearch.com/note/nprm-five-failure-modes Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT The proposed rule (RIN 3038-AF65) draws bright lines around which sports contracts may list. Mapped onto Brierly's failure-mode taxonomy, the permitted/disallowed split is less about the sport than about how resolvable the contract is. The World Cup settlement window: outcome contracts grade cleaner than the markets around them https://brierlyresearch.com/note/world-cup-settlement-window https://brierlyresearch.com/note/world-cup-settlement-window Mon, 15 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT The 2026 World Cup is the largest event-market ever listed. The winner markets are structurally low-risk to settle; the prop-style and 'will X happen' satellites around them are where the disputes will cluster. Turning an opinion into a rating: methodology, evidence, and a public scored record https://brierlyresearch.com/note/opinion-to-rating https://brierlyresearch.com/note/opinion-to-rating Sun, 14 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT A grade becomes a rating when it carries information about real outcomes — and when the firm publishes its own forecasts, scored in the open. Here is how Brierly validates RuleScore: a reproducible methodology, a sourced dispute record, and a live, Brier-scored forward log. The Ambiguity Taxonomy: what 21 settlement disputes teach about contract language https://brierlyresearch.com/note/ambiguity-taxonomy https://brierlyresearch.com/note/ambiguity-taxonomy Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT More than $1B of reported volume sat on 2025–26 markets that ended in settlement controversy. The failures cluster into five repeatable language patterns — and all five are detectable before listing. The microstructure tax: how Kalshi and Polymarket fees actually work in 2026 https://brierlyresearch.com/note/fee-structures https://brierlyresearch.com/note/fee-structures Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT Polymarket ended its zero-fee era with category-based taker fees; Kalshi's quadratic formula never left. Here is the exact math — including the per-order cent rounding most tools ignore — and what fee-aware sizing looks like. The $1T thesis and the empty infrastructure seats https://brierlyresearch.com/note/trillion-dollar-thesis https://brierlyresearch.com/note/trillion-dollar-thesis Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT Two independent research desks project ~$1 trillion in annual event-market volume by 2030. Every market that gets that big grows a ratings-data-benchmark layer worth 1–3% of the trading layer. Almost nobody is building it. FOMC week: what cross-venue pricing says before the June 17 decision https://brierlyresearch.com/note/fed-pricing-jun-2026 https://brierlyresearch.com/note/fed-pricing-jun-2026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:00:00 GMT Both venues price a June hold near-certain, but the interesting information is in the July and cut-count curves — and in the small, persistent gaps between venues. Live numbers below update with the page.