# Brierly

> The independent ratings and research firm for event markets (Kalshi, Polymarket).
> Settlement-risk ratings (RuleScore), the coded dispute database, the Event-Market
> Uncertainty Index (EMU), Brier-scored research, and the EventBasis tax engine.

Named for the Brier score. Every probabilistic call Brierly publishes is
Brier-scored in public and git-stamped in data/records.json.

## Site routes (all server-rendered to the same SPA shell)

- /            landing: live grades, dispute counts, the thesis
- /rulescore   RuleScore™ settlement-risk grades (0–100, five subscores)
- /grade/{venue}/{market_id}   single grade: flags, quoted rules text, SHA-256 receipt
- /grade-draft paste draft contract language → deterministic rubric grade, in-browser
- /methodology rubric weights, fee math (Kalshi next-cent order rounding;
               Polymarket category rates), depth-check rule, EMU v1.1 formula,
               dispute-count method
- /disputes    21 coded 2025–26 settlement disputes with sources
- /dispute/{id}  single case: summary, outcome, drafting lesson, sources
- /index       EMU Index: live gauges + canonical daily closes
- /desk        research notes · /note/{slug} single note
- /transparency  Brier-scored call ledger (registry: data/records.json)
- /eventbasis  TY2026 four-characterization tax calculator
- /eventbasis/import  CSV import → lots → Form 6781/8949 + CPA letter
- /tax/kalshi-taxes · /tax/polymarket-taxes · /tax/prediction-market-1099 ·
  /tax/world-cup-winnings-taxes   sourced TY2026 tax explainers
- /explore /hub /fed /arb /whales /differences /volume /dominance /paper /greeks /chat
               live cross-venue tools (Kalshi + Polymarket public APIs)
- /advisory    rulebook settlement audits + CFTC NPRM gap analysis (exchanges)
- /contact     who Brierly is for + how to reach the firm (founders@brierlyresearch.com)
- /docs        API documentation · /status live feed + backend diagnostics

## API v1 (live in preview)

Base: same origin as the site, path prefix /api/v1
Auth: header  X-Brierly-Key: br_live_…   (Authorization: Bearer also accepted)
Keys: request at /docs (email capture → partner queue). Access during the preview is arranged privately.
Rate limits: 60 req/min, 50,000 cost-units/month. Every authed
response carries X-RateLimit-Limit / X-RateLimit-Remaining / X-RateLimit-Reset.
Errors: JSON {error, hint} on 400/401/403/404/429/503.

GET  /api/v1/health                           no key; {ok, version, time, feeds, db, crons}
GET  /api/v1/grades?venue=&band=&min_volume=&limit=
     RuleScore grades for the coverage universe: score, band, five subscores
     (source_dependence, definitional_vagueness, scalar_carve_out,
     disclosure_timing, oracle_manipulation), flags [{phrase ≤80 chars, note}],
     rules_sha256, volume_24h, graded_at, methodology "rulescore-v0.11"
GET  /api/v1/grades/{venue}/{market_id}       single market graded on demand
     (+ concerns, protections, prior_notes); 404 JSON if unknown
GET  /api/v1/index/emu?basket=composite|econ|election|geo
     live value + daily_history (git-stamped registry wins on conflicts), v1.1
GET  /api/v1/disputes?type=&venue=            the coded dispute DB + per-case sources
GET  /api/v1/search/events?q=&venue=&category=&sort=&limit=
     normalized cross-venue event search
GET  /api/v1/arbitrage?min_net_cents=&depth_checked=true
     fee-netted rows; "actionable" requires ≥25 contracts executable in live books
GET  /api/v1/whales?min_usd=&venue=&limit=    large prints, true token sides
GET  /api/v1/rules-changes?since=&venue=      detected changes: hashes, old→new grades,
     editorial one-liners (full venue rules text is NEVER redistributed)
POST /api/v1/alerts                           {type:"rules-change"|"grade-band",
     markets:[{venue, market_id}], email} → email alerts w/ one-click unsubscribe
GET  /api/v1/usage                            calling key's month usage vs limits

No-key site endpoints: POST /api/alerts-subscribe (email alerts signup),
GET /api/public/rules-changes (rolling 30d), GET /api/public/dispute-count.

## Data semantics

- Prices are probabilities in [0,1]; "cents" formatting = price × 100.
- Kalshi taker fee per order: ceil_to_next_cent(0.07 × C × P × (1−P));
  designated series carry maker fees ceil_to_next_cent(0.0175 × C × P × (1−P)).
- Polymarket taker fee: C × rate(category) × p × (1−p); makers free.
- "Actionable" arbitrage requires net > 0 after both legs' fees AND ≥25
  contracts executable at quoted prices in both live order books.
- RuleScore grades dispute RISK of contract language — never outcome
  probability, never the merits of a resolution.
- Data rights: the API serves derived analytics (grades, hashes, short quoted
  excerpts) and Brierly-authored data (disputes, EMU, records) — never full
  venue rules text or bulk raw market data.

Contact: founders@brierlyresearch.com