Event markets grew up.
Their infrastructure didn't.
Two research desks independently project ~$1 trillion in annual prediction-market volume by 2030 — and $1.1B+ of volume has already settled in controversy. Brierly is the independent ratings firm for the fine print: 0–100 settlement-risk grades on every liquid Kalshi and Polymarket market, published from a public methodology, backed by the only coded database of how these markets actually fail.
The problem is the fine print
and it is detectable in advanceMarkets settle on language, not reality
A $237M market settled on whether an outfit was a "suit." A $204M market died on a confirmation Iran never gave. Biden met Trudeau on television and "Will Biden meet Trudeau?" still resolved No. 21 coded cases, five repeatable failure types — all in the public dispute database.
RuleScore™: grades on the contract, not the trade
A deterministic 0–100 settlement-risk grade on every liquid market, five failure-type subscores, every flagged phrase quoted from the live rules text, and the SHA-256 of exactly what was graded. The methodology is public — any grade can be reproduced.
Everyone pricing these contracts
Market makers quoting 2,000 books. Funds entering through Clear Street and Tradeweb. Exchanges re-papering applications against the June 2026 CFTC proposal. The integrity layer is how an asset class graduates — comp: Covenant Review → Fitch.
Two exchanges. Two APIs. One graded view.
KALSHI
GET /markets/KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0
{"ticker": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0",
"yes_ask_dollars": "0.9800",
"volume_24h_fp": "701500.20",
"rules_primary": "If the upper
bound of the Federal Funds
Target Range is..."}POLYMARKET
GET /markets/0xde04b189b3f1...
{"conditionId": "0xde04b189...",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.987\",
\"0.013\"]",
"clobTokenIds": "[\"3076781...\"]",
"volume24hr": 4157473.13}BRIERLY
one view, both venues — matched, normalized, fee-netted, graded for settlement risk. Fed holds (June): K 98.5¢ · P 99.4¢ Consensus 98.9% · gap inside fees RuleScore 22 · Low dispute risk rules sha256: 9f2c…e1 (reproducible)
Live grades right now
All grades →Proof, not promises
Live right now
The dispute record
21 coded cases, $1.1B+ in reported volume on contested markets, every case sourced. The taxonomy behind the grades is public — and the white paper is headed to SSRN with the full dataset and methodology attached.
Open the databaseThe scored record
Desk calls are probability-stamped at publication, auto-resolved against the venues, and committed to a versioned git registry — once the repository opens to the public at launch, the no-retro-editing claim is independently auditable in the commit history. First resolution: June 17 (FOMC).
See the ledgerAlso from Brierly
the supporting linesEverything is free during early access.
Grades, dashboards, the index, the tax engine, the research — all of it, free while the record builds in public. Join the list and we'll write when something worth your time ships.