About Brierly

Prediction markets settle according to written rules. Brierly exists because a market can describe an obvious event and still produce an ambiguous or disputed settlement.

The company

Brierly is the independent settlement-risk firm for prediction markets. It studies settlement failures, rates live contract rules, reviews proposed language, helps responsible teams draft clearer terms, and reports on the market developments behind that work.

The four offerings

Market News: developments, disputes, rating actions, and market structure.
RuleScore: settlement-risk ratings for live contracts.
RuleReview: private, self-service review before listing.
RuleDraft: professional drafting and redlining support.

The evidence

The current methodology was calibrated against a generated corpus of 1,595 disputed-market records. Brierly classifies 80 records as hard-failure outcomes and compares the rated records with a never-disputed control sample. Detailed sourced case studies explain the failure patterns; they are not the entire census.

Read the methodology

Independent by design

Brierly is not an exchange, market operator, market maker, government regulator, or law firm. No venue may preview or alter a rating. The rubric is deterministic so a reader can reproduce the result from the same normalized rating input.

Who uses the work

Exchanges, DCM applicants, operators, product teams, market-operations teams, compliance and legal teams use the review and drafting products. Market makers, funds, traders, risk teams, researchers, and journalists use ratings, data, and evidence to evaluate settlement risk.

Operating standard

Source material and material limitations are published.
RuleScore evaluates settlement risk, never the event outcome.
Draft language stays in the browser when using RuleReview.
Corrections preserve the difference between the full census and detailed examples.
RuleDraft supports contract language; legal and compliance sign-off remains with qualified professionals.