Event-Market Uncertainty Index EMU
Composite
Economic Policy
Fed path, inflation prints, growth and labor-market markets.
Election
US electoral markets: nominations, control, major races.
Geopolitical
Conflict, ceasefire, and great-power risk markets.
Index history canonical daily closes (git-stamped) · intraday session line
Methodology v1.1
For each basket B: constituents = top 25 matched markets by 24h volume (≥$500); EMU_B = 100 · Σ(wᵢ·4pᵢ(1−pᵢ))/Σwᵢ with wᵢ = 24h volume capped at $2M per market. Composite = equal-weight mean of baskets. Polymarket data only — a deliberate data-rights choice.
4p(1−p) is the variance of a Bernoulli outcome scaled to [0,1] — it prices disagreement, peaking at 50¢ and vanishing at certainty.
v1.1 (Jun 11, 2026): constituents are now selected by volume only. v1.0 selected by weight×uncertainty — selecting on the measured quantity, which simulation showed inflates the level ~9–11 points. Self-caught, corrected, disclosed.
First published June 11, 2026. Daily closes are committed to a versioned git registry by a scheduled job; the repository opens to the public at launch, making each close independently auditable then. Full methodology →