Get the daily brief
Market News
All market newsRSS feedFollow @brierlyresearch on X ↗
RuleScore — settlement-risk ratings
Settlement-Risk RatingsRuleDraft — rules written for youBrierly Review — grade a draftDispute DatabaseMethodology & rating scalePolicy & RegulationUncertainty Index (EMU)
Firm
AboutAdvisory — exchangesPress & newsroomAPI & AccessAPI DocsContactSystem status
Supporting tools
All toolsExploreArbitrage ScannerWhale TrackerMarket DifferencesFed MonitorDashboards HubVolumeDominancePaper BookGreeksEventBasis — tax engine

RuleDraft

A market maker prices risk and provides liquidity brilliantly. Whether the market settles cleanly or freezes in a dispute is decided earlier — in the resolution language. RuleDraft is Brierly's team drafting that language to investment-grade clarity, so your market resolves the way you designed it. Written by the firm that grades settlement risk for a living.
Capital destroyed
$201M
genuine settlement failures on Polymarket, 2026
Sat in bespoke rules
92%
of that capital — hand-written contracts, not templates
Markets that broke
80
of 1,595 disputed — the ones RuleScore flags
What it takes
1 phrase
to turn a perfectly-priced market into a dispute

A market can be priced perfectly and still die on a single ambiguous word. A $237M market settled on whether an outfit was a “suit.” A $204M market died on a confirmation that never came. Those weren't pricing mistakes — they were drafting mistakes, and 92% of the capital lost in 2026 sat in bespoke, hand-written contracts like the ones market makers write every day. Every case is in our public dispute database. RuleDraft closes those gaps before you list.

What “investment-grade” means

every documented failure mode, closed — before the market opens

✓ A named primary source, bound to resolution

Not “credible reporting” or a bare “official source.” A specific, checkable record — the single strongest predictor of a clean settlement.

✓ Every operative term defined

“Suit,” “ceasefire,” “drop out,” “go live” — the undefined word is the single largest dispute bucket in the record. We define it before the market opens.

✓ Boundary, rounding, and the controlling print

At-or-above vs above, decimal handling, and whether the first figure or a later revision governs — the trap that has flipped nine-figure markets.

✓ Timezone, cutoff, and which clock runs

Event-time vs disclosure-time, a hard cutoff, and a stated timezone — the sharpest open trap in the asset class.

✓ Postponement, cancellation, and void handling

A void clause that actually fits the event — so a remade map or a called-off match resolves the way you intended, not the way a bot proposes.

✓ A structured dispute path

No unilateral “sole discretion” or “additional market context” language that lets the outcome be re-read after the fact.

BR-Aaa
Delivered with the grade, and the receipt.

Every RuleDraft contract ships RuleScore-graded to the clearest bands (target BR-Aaa / Minimal), with the flagged risks resolved and the SHA-256 of the exact text — so you can prove the contract's integrity to counterparties, partners, or a regulator, and anyone can reproduce the grade. The methodology is public.

Why the people who grade these contracts should write yours

expertise you can't get from a party with markets to defend

We built the rating

RuleScore is the only settlement-risk rating for prediction markets — BR-Aaa to BR-Ba, calibrated on the 2026 dispute census of 1,595 disputed markets. We know exactly which language settles cleanly because we measured it.

We keep the record

The only coded dispute database — every material way a prediction-market contract has broken, with sources. RuleDraft is that catalogue applied to your rules, in reverse.

We wrote it to the regulator

Brierly filed the settlement-integrity comment to the CFTC's 2026 prediction-markets proposal, grounded entirely in that record. We argue this standard on the public docket — then draft to it.

How it works

from a market idea to a contract built not to break
01 — TELL US THE MARKET

The question, the event, the source

Send the contract you want to list — a rough question, a draft rulebook, or just the idea and the resolution source you have in mind. One market or a whole listing slate.

02 — WE DRAFT & GRADE

Investment-grade language, RuleScore-verified

Our team writes the full resolution language — source, definitions, boundaries, timing, void handling, dispute path — and grades it with RuleScore until it reaches the clearest bands. You get the contract, the flagged risks we closed, and the reproducibility receipt.

03 — YOU LIST WITH CONFIDENCE

Defensible, reproducible, built to settle

List a contract whose settlement is bound to a checkable record and whose grade anyone can verify. Fewer disputes, less frozen capital, a cleaner book — and an integrity story you can show counterparties and counsel.

Engagements

scoped privately · everything under NDA
Single contract
per-market
  • One market drafted or re-papered to investment-grade
  • RuleScore grade + SHA-256 receipt
  • The flagged failure modes, closed and documented
  • Turnaround in days
Book a consultation
Embedded partner
retainer
  • Ongoing drafting partner for a high-volume operator
  • Rules reviewed and graded before every listing
  • A standing settlement-integrity standard for your book
  • Direct line to the team
Book a consultation

Book a consultation

Tell us your firm and what you're listing — this routes straight to our team, not a generic list. We'll come back with how RuleDraft would fit and what it takes. No obligation, everything confidential.

Prefer email? Write to founders@brierlyresearch.com — a founder will reply directly.

See the risk yourself, first

Paste your own draft rules into the Draft-Rules Grader — the published RuleScore rubric runs in your browser, nothing is uploaded, and it shows exactly where a contract is exposed. Then let us take it the rest of the way to investment-grade.

Independent by design

Brierly has no listings and takes no position on any market's outcome — so the language we write serves settlement integrity, not a book we're defending. Grades are produced under a published methodology; engagements are confidential.

RuleDraft delivers drafted contract language and a RuleScore grade under a published methodology. It is a settlement-language service, not legal, financial, or regulatory advice, and not a prediction about any market's outcome; engage qualified counsel for legal and compliance sign-off. © 2026 Brierly.