Israel × Hezbollah ceasefire extended by April 26?

Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2026-04 · $20.9M · status: resolved

What happened

Criteria required confirmation 'from both governments' OR 'overwhelming media consensus.' Hezbollah is not a government (path one unsatisfiable), Lebanon never confirmed, the IDF said no effective cessation — yet the proposer used the media-consensus fallback.

Resolution outcome

Resolved Yes after 2 disputes — the same voter set reading mirrored criteria in the opposite direction vs the Iran market.

The drafting lesson

Symmetric markets, asymmetric readings: identical clause structures resolved opposite ways three days apart.

Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.

Sources

Polymarkets.co.il investigation (May 3, 2026) ↗

Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.

Cite this case

News / wire style

"Israel × Hezbollah ceasefire extended by April 26?," Brierly Dispute Database, Polymarket (2026-04). brierlyresearch.com/dispute/hezbollah-ceasefire.

APA style

Brierly Research. (2026). Israel × Hezbollah ceasefire extended by April 26? [Dispute case]. Brierly Dispute Database. https://brierlyresearch.com/dispute/hezbollah-ceasefire

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