Dispute Database / iran-ceasefire-ext
US × Iran ceasefire extended by April 22?
Polymarket Source dependence · 2026-04 · $203.6M · status: resolved
What happened
Trump publicly extended the ceasefire; mediators and the UN confirmed. But criteria required 'clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran' — and Iran never confirmed in its own voice. Three UMA dispute rounds.
Resolution outcome
Resolved No; YES holders who priced the news, not the clause, were wiped out.
The drafting lesson
Dual-confirmation clauses fail structurally when one party never speaks. RuleScore counts required confirmers.
Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.
Cite this case
News / wire style
"US × Iran ceasefire extended by April 22?," Brierly Dispute Database, Polymarket (2026-04). brierlyresearch.com/dispute/iran-ceasefire-ext.
APA style
Brierly Research. (2026). US × Iran ceasefire extended by April 22? [Dispute case]. Brierly Dispute Database. https://brierlyresearch.com/dispute/iran-ceasefire-ext
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