US × Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Polymarket Source dependence · 2026-04 · $173.7M · status: resolved

What happened

Trump declared a two-week ceasefire with no written agreement and immediate violations; Iran hadn't publicly accepted by deadline. Two UMA disputes pending at resolution. Separately, WSJ-reported account clusters bet Yes hours before the announcement, triggering a House Oversight probe.

Resolution outcome

Resolved Yes after 2 disputes — the opposite reading of the same 'Iran's own voice' gap that sank the extension market.

The drafting lesson

When the same ambiguity resolves both ways within weeks, the price was never measuring the world — it was measuring the oracle.

Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.

Sources

Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.

Cite this case

News / wire style

"US × Iran ceasefire by April 7?," Brierly Dispute Database, Polymarket (2026-04). brierlyresearch.com/dispute/iran-ceasefire-orig.

APA style

Brierly Research. (2026). US × Iran ceasefire by April 7? [Dispute case]. Brierly Dispute Database. https://brierlyresearch.com/dispute/iran-ceasefire-orig

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