Dispute Database / khamenei-kalshi

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran

Kalshi Definitional vagueness · 2026-02 · $54.0M ($54M claimed unpaid winnings (class action); $21.7M traded Feb 28 alone) · status: litigation

What happened

Khamenei was killed in strikes on Feb 28, 2026. Kalshi halted trading, invoked a death carve-out, and settled at the last pre-death price ($0.02) instead of $1.00 — admitting its settlement language was 'grammatically ambiguous' (CFTC-filed terms vs market page differed). A federal class action claims ~$54M owed.

Resolution outcome

Settled at last pre-death price; fees reimbursed; lawsuit pending; death rule later codified.

The drafting lesson

Two versions of the same rule existed in two places. RuleScore flags settlement-language divergence between filed terms and market pages.

Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.

Sources

Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.

Cite this case

News / wire style

"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran," Brierly Dispute Database, Kalshi (2026-02). brierlyresearch.com/dispute/khamenei-kalshi.

APA style

Brierly Research. (2026). Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran [Dispute case]. Brierly Dispute Database. https://brierlyresearch.com/dispute/khamenei-kalshi

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