Khamenei out by February 28 (Polymarket twin)

Polymarket Source dependence · 2026-03 · $529.0M (>$529M across related Iran markets since Dec 2025) · status: resolved

What happened

Polymarket's parallel contract was proposed 'Yes' twice and disputed twice through UMA after the strikes, hinging on whether Khamenei was 'removed from power' by deadline. Polymarket added a mid-flight note that the market could stay open until 'a consensus of credible reporting' emerged.

Resolution outcome

Multiple UMA dispute rounds; final review amid reporting ambiguity.

The drafting lesson

'Consensus of credible reporting' is not a resolution source — it is a debate. Twin markets on the same fact diverged across venues.

Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.

Sources

Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.

Cite this case

News / wire style

"Khamenei out by February 28 (Polymarket twin)," Brierly Dispute Database, Polymarket (2026-03). brierlyresearch.com/dispute/khamenei-poly.

APA style

Brierly Research. (2026). Khamenei out by February 28 (Polymarket twin) [Dispute case]. Brierly Dispute Database. https://brierlyresearch.com/dispute/khamenei-poly

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