The independent news, ratings, risk intelligence, and market structure analytics firm for prediction markets.
Prediction markets settle on fine print, and $1.1B+ of volume has already settled in controversy. Brierly covers the market like a newsroom, rates every liquid contract's settlement risk like a ratings agency — BR-Aaa to BR-C, from the full rules text, under a public methodology — and publishes the risk intelligence and market-structure data behind both.
What Brierly is
four lines of work, one independent deskToday in prediction markets
All market news →Get the daily brief
The day's prediction-market news, notable rating actions, and settlement-risk flags — one email from the independent desk.
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Markets today live
read straight from venue public APIs — every number links to its sourceLive market structure
RuleScores of the day graded live
All ratings + market lookup →Highest settlement risk liquid markets, worst first
Clearest settlement terms liquid markets, best first
BR-Aaa (exceptionally clear) → BR-C (extreme risk), computed live from each market's full rules text — never from price. The scale, weights, and evidence are on the methodology page. Ratings are editorial opinions about contract language, not predictions of any outcome.
The problem is the fine print
and it is detectable in advanceMarkets settle on language, not reality
A $237M market settled on whether an outfit was a "suit." A $204M market died on a confirmation Iran never gave. Biden met Trudeau on television and "Will Biden meet Trudeau?" still resolved No. 21 coded cases, five repeatable failure types — all in the public dispute database.
RuleScore™: the contract, not the trade
A deterministic settlement-risk rating — BR-Aaa to BR-C — on every liquid market, five failure-type subscores, market-type-aware calibration, every flagged phrase quoted from the full rules text, and the SHA-256 of exactly what was rated. The methodology is public — any rating can be reproduced.
Everyone pricing these contracts
Market makers quoting 2,000 books. Funds entering through Clear Street and Tradeweb. Exchanges re-papering against the June 2026 CFTC proposal. Counsel, compliance, journalists, researchers. The integrity layer is how an asset class graduates.
Proof, not promises
The dispute record
21 coded cases, $1.1B+ in reported volume on contested markets, every case sourced and dated. The taxonomy behind the ratings is public — and citable (CC BY 4.0).
Open the databaseOn the public record
Brierly's comment on the CFTC's prediction-markets proposal (RIN 3038-AF65) is on the public docket — grounded entirely in the coded dispute record. The settlement-risk standard, argued to the regulator.
Read the filingThe scored record
loading the registry…
Desk calls are probability-stamped at publication, auto-resolved against the venues, and Brier-scored in a versioned git registry — wins and misses alike. The first registered call resolved correctly at the June 17 FOMC.
See the ledgerAlso from Brierly
the supporting linesStart with the daily brief
News, rating actions, and settlement-risk flags — one email a day from the independent desk. Free.
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Work with the desk
Settlement-risk feeds and the API for funds and market makers; pre-listing review and advisory for exchanges and counsel; data access for researchers and press.
Live coverage between emails: @brierlyresearch on X ↗